ALGII.6 Probability

Beginning Lesson

Aws4 request&x amz signedheaders=host&x amz signature=57d40304dac928b8c8c978e0fa4656d812aaa3926917c3c2a9aa95795ac94d1d

Oh, Craps!

What is the likelihood of winning at craps? Students learn the rules of the popular casino game, and use probabilities to determine how likely players are to win big (or go broke).

Topic: Congruence (CO), Modeling with Geometry (MG)

Middle Lessons

Aws4 request&x amz signedheaders=host&x amz signature=e5b97d8376e3297d83e2b02c66ae19a672ef9967903fa3a876e314a4e217c32d

Bracketology

What’s the best strategy for creating a March Madness bracket? Students use probability to discover that it’s basically impossible to correctly predict every game in the tournament. Nevertheless, that doesn’t stop people from trying.

Topic: Conditional Probability and the Rules of Probability (CP), Creating Equations (CED), Linear, Quadratic, and Exponential Models (LE)
Aws4 request&x amz signedheaders=host&x amz signature=c88d6a7c14c92a0d96be7f576cb52415bdb57ecbebd1d1255adc42c07302870a

Bumpy Flight

How many tickets should airlines sell? Students use probability and expected value to investigate the overbooking phenomenon and why airlines make the decisions they do.

Topic: Conditional Probability and the Rules of Probability (CP)
Aws4 request&x amz signedheaders=host&x amz signature=4344e140403c07588fbfe109be45b56e5d62f6e2c2e2ef60e045dc4d9c0ea477

Golden Gatekeepers

Did UC Berkeley discriminate against women? Students use frequency tables, conditional probability, and Simpson's Paradox to explore the (un?)fairness of college admissions.

Topic: Conditional Probability and the Rules of Probability (CP), Interpreting Categorical and Quantitative Data (ID)
Aws4 request&x amz signedheaders=host&x amz signature=08598d9fae0f521430dd03b3968f31e08f1e14f0c5184e1699f19d811b476728

Oddsballs

When is it worth buying a Powerball ticket? Students count combinations and apply basic rules of probability and expected value to determine when the Powerball jackpot is large enough to justify the cost of playing the game.

Topic: Conditional Probability and the Rules of Probability (CP)
Aws4 request&x amz signedheaders=host&x amz signature=3ff8799b3073f26be6b4d93042013750d3e8655d4881648f66235ad2bcaf1da0

Spin City

What is the likelihood of winning at roulette? Students use probabilities and odds to examine the betting and gameplay of roulette, including where the infamous house edge comes from.

Topic:
Aws4 request&x amz signedheaders=host&x amz signature=03420aba1f0dff98066e5aea6b81dbcd5fceed550f36415aba5e95b9c5c9ee6f

Three Shots

In basketball, should you ever foul at the buzzer? Students use probabilities to determine when the defense should foul...and when they should not.

Topic: Conditional Probability and the Rules of Probability (CP)

End Lesson

Aws4 request&x amz signedheaders=host&x amz signature=966fc5a7a066dd14fd2d4ff46dea497506e50bc08cff49d8ac8a718a35e05904

PRISN

What is the chance that PRISM ensnares an innocent person? Students use conditional probabilities to examine some of the implications of a program like PRISM. Specifically, if someone has been identified as a threat, what’s the probability that person actually is a threat?

Topic: Conditional Probability and the Rules of Probability (CP)