Spin City
What is the likelihood of winning at roulette?
Students will
- Calculate probabilities, odds, and payouts for a “fair” roulette wheel, and understand how they are related
- Examine a real roulette wheel, and learn how a casino alters a game to its advantage
- Discuss whether or not it’s possible to win money or break even playing roulette in the long run
Before you begin
Students should be able to fluently reduce fractions and ratios to simplest form. No prior probability knowledge is assumed, however. This lesson can help introduce both the ideas of theoretical probability and expected value.Common Core Standards
Content Standards
Mathematical Practices
Downloads
Shoutouts
Nevada Gambling Commission
Related Lessons
Bumpy Flight
How many tickets should airlines sell? Students use probability and expected value to investigate the overbooking phenomenon and why airlines make the decisions they do.
Basketball IQ
In basketball, which shot should you take? Students use probability and expected value to determine how much 3-point and 2-point shots are really "worth" to different NBA players.
Three Shots
In basketball, should you ever foul at the buzzer? Students use probabilities to determine when the defense should foul...and when they should not.
Shuffle
What does it mean for a playlist to be "random?" Students use probability to explore the idea of randomness, as well as the patterns that can emerge from random processes like shuffles.
Oh, Craps!
What is the likelihood of winning at craps? Students learn the rules of the popular casino game, and use probabilities to determine how likely players are to win big (or go broke).
Going Once, Going Twice
How much should you bid in an auction? Students use probability, expected value, and polynomial functions to develop a profit-maximizing bidding strategy.
The Waiting Game
How many people should you date before you settle down? Students use modeling with probability distributions to come up with a rule to try to maximize their relationship happiness.
Oddsballs
When is it worth buying a Powerball ticket? Students count combinations and apply basic rules of probability and expected value to determine when the Powerball jackpot is large enough to justify the cost of playing the game.
Driving Question
When should NFL teams go for it on fourth down? Students use quadratic functions to develop a model of expected points. They then apply this model to determine when teams should punt the ball, and more importantly, when they shouldn’t.
