In the finals of the 2005 Conference USA basketball tournament, and with his team down by two points, Memphis Tigers guard Darius Washington was fouled while attempting a three-pointer at the buzzer. He missed the shot and headed to the line for three foul shots.
Watch the video of Darius preparing to take his first shot. Before he shoots, what is the probability that Memphis will win the game? Lose the game? Send it into overtime?