Three Shots
by Mathalicious

Let’s return to the moment just before Darius Washington attempted his 3-pointer. During the regular season, Washington shot 72% from the foul line and made 40% of his 3-pointers. Imagine the coach of Louisville is trying to decide whether or not to foul; if the defense fouls, let’s assume that Washington misses his 3-point shot.

For each scenario   no foul or foul   calculate the probability that Louisville wins, loses, or sends the game into overtime. Who do you expect will win in each case, and do you think Louisville should have fouled?